There is no official number: published frameworks put gold at anywhere from about 2.5% to 25% of a portfolio, and only one of the eight compared here sets a separate weight for silver (5%, in the Permanent Portfolio fund). Bullion Trading LLC research using S&P 500 and LBMA prices finds that gold was higher at the bottom of 7 of the 10 US stock market declines of 15% or more since 1987, while silver was higher in only 2 and has swung about twice as much as gold. The World Gold Council’s 2026 research models gold at 2.5% to 10% and says the right amount depends on the rest of the portfolio. The question is live again because both metals have fallen hard from their 29 January records: on 3 November 2026 gold was 27% lower and silver 58% lower.
| Key finding | Result |
|---|---|
| Gold share in eight published frameworks | About 2.5% (lowest modeled) to 25% (Permanent Portfolio) |
| Frameworks that set a silver weight | 1 of 8: the Permanent Portfolio fund, 20% gold plus 5% silver |
| S&P 500 declines of 15% or more since 1987 | 10; gold higher at the low in 7 (median +5.2%) |
| Silver higher at the low of those declines | 2 of 10 |
| Volatility, 1990 to 2025 | Gold 15.8% a year, silver 29.6% (1.9 times) |
| Weeks with a fall of 10% or more since 2000 | Gold 2, silver 21 |
| Change from the 29 January 2026 records to 3 November | Gold −27.1%, silver −58.3% |
| Median premium over the Ask, our prices, 3 November 2026 | 1 oz gold 2.6% to 3.4%; silver 15.6% to 19.1% (over the Ask) |
How much of your portfolio should be in precious metals?
Published answers cluster in two groups: research-based ranges of roughly 2.5% to 10% gold, and named strategies that hold 15% to 25%. None was designed for an individual’s whole situation, and most say nothing about silver.
| Framework | Gold | Silver | What it is |
|---|---|---|---|
| World Gold Council, 2026 edition | 2.5% to 10% (modeled) | None | Adds gold to a hypothetical 50% stocks, 40% bonds, 10% alternatives US portfolio; says the optimal amount rises with portfolio risk |
| World Gold Council, July 2025 | 5% to 8% | None | Optimal range in a simulation of 10,000 portfolios that include alternatives, 2000 to May 2025 |
| UBS chief investment officer (September 2025) | Mid-single digits | None | A house view reported by Fortune |
| Ray Dalio (October 2025) | About 15% | None | “Something like 15%” as the optimal mix, at the Greenwich Economic Forum (Fortune) |
| Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson (September 2025) | 20% | None | A 60/20/20 mix of stocks, bonds and gold, reported by Reuters |
| Golden Butterfly | 20% | None | Five equal slices: two stock funds, long and short Treasuries, gold |
| Permanent Portfolio fund | 20% | 5% | A mutual fund with fixed targets (prospectus dated 1 June 2026), rebalanced when a slice drifts |
| Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio | 25% | None | 25% each in stocks, long-term Treasuries, Treasury bills and gold |
The research ranges come from mean-variance analysis, the “efficient frontier” idea of finding the mix with the best return for a given level of risk. The council’s point is that gold’s value is as a diversifier, so how much helps depends on what else you own: riskier portfolios needed more gold in its tests. In a May 2025 note it added that when stocks and bonds rise and fall together, as they did in 2022, “a larger allocation to gold is required to retain the initial level of portfolio risk” (World Gold Council).
The fixed-slice strategies, the Permanent Portfolio and the Golden Butterfly, start from a different idea: hold a slice for each kind of economy (growth, recession, inflation, tight money) and rebalance. The 15% and 20% views from Dalio and Wilson were stated in late 2025, with gold near record highs. The traditional “5% to 10% as insurance” rule of thumb you’ll hear sits inside the research range; none of these sources treats one number as right for everyone.
What did gold do when stocks crashed?
Usually it held up, but not always, and rarely in a straight line. From each S&P 500 peak to its trough, gold was higher in 7 of the 10 declines of 15% or more since 1987, with a median gain of 5.2% while stocks fell a median 22.7%.
The exceptions matter. Gold fell 6.9% in the 1998 decline, 4.9% in the March 2020 crash and 7.5% in 2022, when rising interest rates hit stocks, bonds and gold together. And the endpoints hide the path: in 2007 to 2009 gold finished 25.5% higher, but along the way it dropped 29.5%, from $1,011.25 on 17 March 2008 to $712.50 on 24 October, as investors raised cash in the financial crisis. Silver behaved more like a stock: it was lower at the bottom of 8 of the 10 declines, including a 31.8% fall in 2020.
What 10% in metals would have changed in 2008 and 2022
Less than many buyers expect. Take a hypothetical portfolio of 90% S&P 500 and 10% gold, prices only and no rebalancing. In the 2007 to 2009 bear market it would have fallen 48.6% instead of 56.8%. In 2022 it would have fallen 23.6% instead of 25.4%, and in March 2020 31.0% instead of 33.9%. Splitting the 10% as 75% gold and 25% silver gives 49.2%, 23.8% and 31.7%: slightly worse each time, because silver fell with stocks.
A small slice cushions a crash; it does not prevent one. The cost runs the other way in good years: from gold’s peak on 5 September 2011 to 16 October 2026, the S&P 500 rose 6.6-fold on price alone while gold rose 2.2-fold.
How much gold vs silver to own?
The published frameworks are almost silent, so the data has to do the work: silver has been about twice as volatile as gold, has fallen further in every major slump, and costs about six times as much in premiums per dollar of metal.
| Measure | Gold | Silver |
|---|---|---|
| Volatility, 1990 to 2025 (a year) | 15.8% | 29.6% |
| Volatility, 12 months to 3 Nov 2026 | 27.4% | 62.6% |
| Weeks with a fall of 10% or more, 2000 to 2026 | 2 | 21 |
| From the 1980 peak to the low | −70% ($850 to $252.80, 1999) | −93% ($49.45 to $3.55, 1991) |
| From the 2011 peak to the low | −45% ($1,895 to $1,049.40, 2015) | −75% ($48.70 to $12.01, 2020) |
| From the 29 January 2026 record to 3 November 2026 | −27% (from $5,405) | −58% (from $118.45) |
| Median premium over the Ask (our check/wire prices, 3 Nov 2026) | 2.6% (1 oz coins), 3.4% (1 oz bars) | 19.1% (1 oz coins), 17.5% (10 oz bars), 17.1% (100 oz bars) |
| What $10,000 buys at the 3 Nov 2026 Ask | 2.5 oz, about 78 g | 201 oz, about 6.2 kg |
That is the usual argument for making gold the larger share when stability matters most: a silver-heavy mix suits only someone comfortable with a halving in a year, as in 2026. Silver’s case is growth and affordability: one ounce costs about $50, its price has more industrial drivers, and it has outrun gold in rallies, including its run to $118.45 in January.
Some buyers tilt the mix with the gold-silver ratio, the number of ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys, leaning toward silver when it is high (above 80, say) and toward gold when it is low (below 50). It was 79.8 on 3 November 2026, against an average of 68.8 since 2000 and 60.3 since 1970; it has ranged from 31.5 in April 2011 to 123.5 in March 2020.
Myth: the ratio “should” return to the 8 to 1 at which the metals come out of the ground. Fact: mines did produce about 8 ounces of silver per ounce of gold in 2025 (26,000 tonnes against 3,300, according to the U.S. Geological Survey), but the price ratio’s low in LBMA data since 1968 was 14, in January 1980, and it has not closed below 31.5 since October 1980. Prices reflect investment demand and above-ground stocks, not mine output alone.
How to decide your own number
Start from what you want the metal to do, then let horizon, liquidity, storage and cost narrow the range. The diagram lists the questions in the order buyers usually face them.
- Insurance. A slice held through good and bad markets, so a currency, banking or stock shock doesn’t hit everything at once. This is the use the research ranges model, usually with a yearly rebalance.
- Savings outside the financial system. Some buyers keep a large share of long-term savings in coins and bars because metal is nobody’s liability. That needs a plan for storage, insurance and eventually selling (see storing precious metals safely).
- A trade. Buying because you expect prices to rise soon is speculation, and the size should match: money you could watch fall by half, as silver did this year.
Cash for emergencies comes before any of these, because metal sold in a hurry may be sold on a bad day. Buying in steps, known as dollar-cost averaging, avoids committing everything at a peak, and planners commonly reduce volatile holdings as a goal gets closer, which within metals has usually meant favoring gold over silver. Metal can also be held in a self-directed IRA if it is IRA-eligible (meets IRS fineness rules) and held through an IRS-approved custodian; 26 U.S.C. 408(m) sets the rule, and Bullion Trading LLC is not a custodian.
Why people buy gold and silver
- No counterparty. A coin in hand is not a promise from a bank or fund. The World Gold Council calls gold “no one’s liability” with “no credit risk.”
- Liquidity. Standard coins and bars can be sold to dealers on any business day at a price tied to the spot market.
- Diversification. Gold’s price responds to different forces from company earnings, which helps explain why it held up in most of the declines above.
- Official demand. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, down from 1,092 tonnes in 2024 but still historically high, according to the World Gold Council.
- Long-run purchasing power, unevenly. Gold has kept up with prices over decades, but after its 1980 peak it took until January 2008 to fix above $850 again.
Physical metal or paper gold?
Funds, shares and futures track the price, but they are claims on someone else; for an insurance or savings slice, only metal you control removes that counterparty.
| Form | What you own | Main trade-offs |
|---|---|---|
| Coins and bars | The metal itself, at home or in an allocated vault account in your name | No counterparty; you pay a premium, arrange storage and insurance, and sell through a dealer |
| Exchange-traded funds | Shares in a trust that holds metal | Easy to trade in a brokerage account; yearly fees (0.40% for GLD); shareholders sell shares rather than take delivery of metal |
| Mining stocks | Shares in companies | Can rise or fall far more than the metal; company, cost and country risks |
| Futures and options | Exchange contracts | Leverage magnifies gains and losses; for experienced traders |
Gold, silver, platinum or palladium?
- Gold is held mainly as an investment, a central-bank reserve and jewelry, and is the most liquid precious metal.
- Silver is also an industrial metal: industrial uses took 657.4 million ounces in 2025, about 58% of total demand of 1.13 billion ounces, and demand exceeded supply for the fifth straight year, according to the Silver Institute. That industrial link is part of why its price swings more (see why silver is so cheap compared with gold).
- Platinum and palladium are mostly industrial. Their leading US use is catalytic converters, and supply is concentrated: South Africa is the leading producer of platinum-group metal ore and Russia of mined palladium, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Prices can move sharply on car-industry and supply news; none of the frameworks above includes them.
Common allocation mistakes
- Counting jewelry as bullion. Jewelry carries design and labor costs that don’t come back when you sell, and some dealers, including us, buy only bullion coins, bars and rounds.
- Ignoring the exit. A single kilo bar has to be sold in one piece, and 100 oz of silver is a poor source of cash for a $2,000 bill. Smaller coins and bars let you sell part of a holding. Resale details matter too: at our counter, bars still in their assay card resell better, and we buy back what we sell (bars, rounds and coins, including world gold bullion coins, pre-1933 U.S. gold coins, British Sovereigns, 90% silver coins, Morgan and Peace dollars and the collector coins we carry), but not casting grain or any other grain.
- Paying collector premiums with a bullion budget. Graded and rare coins are a separate market; if a dealer buys them back at melt, the premium is gone.
- All-or-nothing timing. Waiting for the perfect price, or selling everything after a drop, depends on timing the market; steady buying and an annual rebalance avoid that bet.
- Skipping the terms. Read return and cancellation rules before ordering. Ours allow returns within 7 days of delivery with a 10% restocking fee (terms and conditions).
What would make the case for metals wrong?
Metals pay no income, so a long stretch of strong stocks, falling inflation and high real interest rates can leave them behind for years, as in 1980 to 2001 and 2011 to 2015. Gold’s record as a crash hedge is a tendency, not a rule: it fell in three of the ten declines above and dropped sharply in the 2008 cash scramble. Silver adds return potential but also the risk of losing half its value in months. Storage, insurance, premiums and a 28% maximum federal tax rate on collectibles gains (IRS Topic 409) all reduce what you keep.
Where gold and silver stand in November 2026
The Ask was $3,967.67 for gold and $49.84 for silver on 3 November 2026, after their 29 January records of $5,405 and $118.45. The gold-silver ratio was 79.8, above its average since 2000. Both metals have been unusually volatile: over the past 12 months gold's volatility was 27.4% and silver's 62.6%, well above their 1990 to 2025 averages of 15.8% and 29.6%. The Silver Institute expects demand to exceed supply again in 2026, and central-bank buying, while slower than in 2024, remained high in 2025.
How we did the research
We identified every S&P 500 decline of 15% or more from a closing high since January 1987, using daily closes (price only, from Yahoo Finance, checked against published closes), and measured the 2011 decline from its April 2011 high because the index was still below its 2007 record. Gold and silver changes use the LBMA price on the same dates (or the last fix before), with BTLLC spot closes after 28 September 2026. Volatility is the annualized standard deviation of daily log changes on days with both fixes. The 90/10 illustration uses the same peak-to-trough changes without rebalancing, dividends or costs. Premiums are medians of in-stock bullion products at our check/wire prices on 3 November 2026. Frameworks were checked against the sources linked in the table.
Limits: ten declines is a small sample, peak-to-trough windows favor neither asset by design but ignore what came after, and price-only figures leave out dividends, which would make stocks look better. The table below has the full drawdown data; use the button to download it.
| Decline (S&P 500 high to low) | S&P 500 | Gold | Silver | Gold's worst fall inside the window |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 1987 to 4 Dec 1987 | −33.5% | +6.2% | −11.8% | −4.9% |
| 16 Jul 1990 to 11 Oct 1990 | −19.9% | +6.8% | −10.8% | −8.5% |
| 17 Jul 1998 to 31 Aug 1998 | −19.3% | −6.9% | −9.5% | −7.3% |
| 24 Mar 2000 to 9 Oct 2002 | −49.1% | +12.1% | −14.3% | −12.2% |
| 9 Oct 2007 to 9 Mar 2009 | −56.8% | +25.5% | +1.1% | −29.5% |
| 29 Apr 2011 to 3 Oct 2011 | −19.4% | +7.8% | −36.2% | −15.7% |
| 20 Sep 2018 to 24 Dec 2018 | −19.8% | +4.1% | +3.1% | −2.7% |
| 19 Feb 2020 to 23 Mar 2020 | −33.9% | −4.9% | −31.8% | −12.4% |
| 3 Jan 2022 to 12 Oct 2022 | −25.4% | −7.5% | −16.9% | −19.8% |
| 19 Feb 2025 to 8 Apr 2025 | −18.9% | +2.7% | −7.9% | −3.8% |
How much gold and silver to own: the bottom line
Published frameworks range from about 2.5% to 25% in gold, with research-based work at the low end and fixed-slice strategies at the high end; almost none sets a silver weight. History supports gold as a partial cushion in stock crashes, not a guarantee, and shows silver as the higher-risk, higher-cost part of a metals holding. The number that fits depends on the job the metal is meant to do and how long you can hold it through a slump.
Frequently asked questions
How much silver should I own?
No mainstream framework gives a silver percentage except the Permanent Portfolio fund, at 5% next to 20% gold. Because silver has been about twice as volatile as gold, most metals buyers have kept it the smaller share.
How many ounces of gold should I own?
Ounces follow from the dollar share: at $3,967.67 (Ask) an ounce, each $10,000 of gold is about 2.5 ounces. The calculator above converts any portfolio size and share.
What percentage do financial advisors recommend for precious metals?
Views differ widely. UBS’s chief investment officer suggested a mid-single-digit share in 2025, the World Gold Council’s research models 2.5% to 10%, and some strategists have published 15% to 20%.
Sources
- World Gold Council, Gold as a strategic asset: 2026 edition, Portfolio impact; The Portfolio Continuum; Gold’s optimal portfolio weight in a higher correlated environment; Gold Demand Trends: Full Year 2025: allocation research, central-bank buying.
- Fortune, Ray Dalio on gold allocation (8 October 2025): Dalio’s 15% and UBS’s mid-single-digit view.
- Reuters via Kitco, Morgan Stanley CIO favors 60/20/20 portfolio (16 September 2025).
- Portfolio Charts, Golden Butterfly and Permanent Portfolio: allocations.
- Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, Summary prospectus (1 June 2026): target percentages.
- LBMA, Precious metal prices: daily gold and silver benchmarks.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500: index definition; daily closes via Yahoo Finance.
- Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026 release (15 April 2026): demand and deficit.
- U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: silver, gold and platinum-group metals: mine production, uses.
- IRS, Topic 409; Cornell LII, 26 U.S.C. 408: collectibles tax rate and IRA rules.
- Royal Society of Chemistry, periodic table entries for silver and gold: densities used in the calculator.
- State Street Global Advisors, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): expense ratio.