Gold has beaten US real estate on price since 2000, but not in every decade, and not always once rent is counted. A median new US house cost about 92 ounces of gold in the third quarter of 2026, down from 669 ounces in 2001 and close to the record low of 84 ounces set in the first quarter, according to Bullion Trading LLC research using Census Bureau and HUD median prices (published on FRED) and LBMA gold prices back to 1963. Rent changes the comparison: in the US, net rent has averaged about 5.3% of a home’s value a year against a 0.9% average real price gain, according to the Rate of Return on Everything study. It matters now because the two have just moved apart: gold was 25% below its January record on 7 November 2026, while the national Case-Shiller home price index was close to its July 2026 high in August.
| Key finding | Result |
|---|---|
| Median new US house in ounces of gold, third quarter of 2026 | 92.1 oz ($393,300 at an average gold price of $4,269.51) |
| Same house at the 7 November 2026 gold Ask ($4,099.96) | 95.9 oz |
| Highest and lowest since 1963 | 684 oz (second quarter of 1970); 83.8 oz (first quarter of 2026) |
| Median of all 255 quarters | 303 oz |
| January 1987 to August 2026, before inflation | Home prices ×5.3, gold ×10.8 |
| January 1987 to August 2026, after inflation | Home prices ×1.8, gold ×3.6 |
| From gold’s September 2011 peak month to August 2026 | Home prices ×2.40, gold ×2.49 |
| Correlation of yearly price changes, 1988 to 2025 | −0.26 (weak, slightly opposite) |
Gold vs real estate chart: how many ounces of gold buy a house?
About 92 ounces at third-quarter 2026 averages, or 96 at the 7 November gold Ask, which is among the lowest readings in the 63-year record. The chart divides the median price of a new US house by the average gold price in the same quarter. A falling line means gold bought more house; a rising line means houses got dearer in gold.
The highs and lows line up with gold’s own history more than with housing’s:
- 1963 to 1970, about 510 to 684 ounces. Gold was held near $35, and private ownership of gold bullion in the US was not legal again until 1974, as the Federal Reserve’s history of the Gold Reserve Act notes. Those early readings describe a fixed price, not a market; the 1971 Nixon shock cut the dollar’s last tie to gold.
- 1980, about 100 ounces. Gold reached $850 on 21 January 1980 and averaged $648 in the third quarter, when the median new house cost $64,900.
- 2001, 669 ounces. Gold averaged $268 in the second quarter of 2001, close to its lowest level since 1979, while house prices had kept rising.
- 2011 to 2015, from 131 back to 274 ounces. Gold peaked in 2011 and fell for four years while house prices recovered.
- 2026, a record low of 83.8 ounces. Gold averaged $4,875 in the first quarter, after its record of $5,405 on 29 January, while the median new house slipped to $408,500.
Readers who know the Dow-to-gold ratio will recognize the pattern: extremes have come before big reversals, but only hindsight shows which reading was the extreme.
Has gold or real estate had better historical returns?
It depends on the decade. Using yearly averages, gold rose faster in the 1970s, the 2000s and 2020 to 2025; house prices rose faster in the 1980s and 1990s, and the 2010s were close to a tie.
Over the whole 1970 to 2025 span, gold's yearly average rose about 96-fold (8.6% a year) and the median new house about 18-fold (5.4% a year). Since 2000 the gap is wider: gold rose about 12-fold, houses about 2.5-fold. But 1970 is a flattering start for gold, which had just left a fixed price. The 1970s alone make the point: gold went from $35 to its $850 peak in January 1980, a gain of about 2,330%, while the median new house rose 166% between early 1970 and early 1980. Gold then needed until 3 January 2008 to fix above $850 again.
Other house price measures tell a similar story. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s purchase-only index, which tracks repeat sales of the same homes, rose about 4.3% a year from January 1991 to July 2026 (FHFA via FRED).
Gold price vs real estate since 1987, before and after inflation
Since 1987, gold has risen about twice as much as US home prices, before and after inflation, but the lead is recent: gold first overtook home prices in 2009 and built most of its lead after 2023. The Case-Shiller national index tracks repeat sales of existing single-family homes, so it avoids the shift in the mix of new houses that the median can suffer from.
After inflation, US home prices rose about 75% from January 1987 to August 2026 and gold about 259%. The path matters as much as the end point. In real terms, gold spent nearly two decades below its 1987 level and in 2001 was worth about 40% of it, while real home prices climbed until late 2005.
Then the housing crash reversed the roles. From July 2006 to February 2012, the national index fell 27.4%, while the monthly average gold price rose 175%, from $634 to $1,743. Local markets fell much further: Las Vegas lost 61.7% from peak to trough, Phoenix 55.9% and Miami 51.2% (Case-Shiller metro indices, FRED). The national index did not regain its 2006 peak until January 2017, and Las Vegas not until June 2021. Gold ended 2009 about 25% above where it ended 2008.
What the price chart leaves out: rent, leverage and costs
Rent is most of real estate’s long-run return, leverage magnifies it in both directions, and costs take a bigger bite out of property than out of gold.
In the US data of the Rate of Return on Everything study, housing returned 6.1% a year after inflation: 0.9 points from price gains and 5.3 points from net rent. A homeowner gets that income as the rent they don’t pay. The authors estimate that round-trip transaction costs average about 7.7% of a property’s value across the 13 countries with OECD data, which works out to under 1 point a year for someone who holds for a decade.
Our own illustration shows how much the yield matters. Case-Shiller prices rose 4.7% a year from January 2000 to August 2026 and gold 10.9% a year. A rented house would have needed a net yield of about 6.2% a year to match gold over that span. From January 1987, when home prices rose 4.3% a year and gold 6.2%, a net yield of about 1.9% would have been enough. The start date, and the rent, decide the winner.
Leverage cuts both ways. With 20% down at the July 2006 peak, a 27.4% fall wiped out the buyer’s equity and more, before counting the mortgage payments. With 20% down at the February 2012 trough, the same index rose 151% by August 2026, several times the buyer's cash. Gold is normally bought outright, so its owner gets neither the boost nor the risk of owing more than the asset is worth. Borrowing costs more now than in 2012: the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.40% on 15 October 2026, according to Freddie Mac.
Gold has costs too. The median premium over the Ask on the 1 oz gold coins and bars in our catalog was 3.2% at Bullion Trading LLC check/wire prices on 7 November 2026 (these are our prices, one dealer’s snapshot; card prices are 5% higher), and small pieces cost far more per ounce: a 1 gram bar was $167.86, about 27% over the Ask. The guide to gold premiums explains why. Storage adds up over time, from a home safe to a vault (see allocated vs unallocated storage); for comparison, the largest gold ETF, GLD, charges 0.40% a year (State Street).
Gold vs property: costs, taxes and liquidity compared
Property wins on income and tax breaks; gold wins on entry size, holding costs and speed of sale. The table puts the main differences side by side.
| Feature | Real estate | Physical gold |
|---|---|---|
| What you own | One building and its land, in one local market | Metal priced in a global market; a 1 oz coin is the same anywhere |
| Income | Rent, or the rent an owner doesn’t pay; US net rent averaged 5.3% of value a year (1891–2015) | None |
| Cost to buy | Buyer closing costs about 2% to 5% of the price (Freddie Mac) | Median premium 3.2% on 1 oz coins and bars (our check/wire prices, 7 Nov 2026); more on small pieces |
| Cost to sell | Agent, transfer and closing costs; about 7.7% of value round trip on average (OECD data) | Dealer pays below spot; the gap is narrowest on widely traded coins and bars |
| Yearly holding costs | Property tax of about 0.3% to 1.9% of value, by state (Tax Foundation, 2024), plus insurance and maintenance | Storage and insurance; a gold ETF charges 0.40% a year |
| Borrowing | Usually bought with a mortgage (30-year fixed 7.40% on 15 Oct 2026) | Usually bought outright |
| Smallest step | A whole property; 20% down on the median new house is $78,660 | A 1 gram bar, up to the roughly 400 oz bars banks trade (LBMA) |
| Time to cash | Median 33 days on the market in September 2026, then closing | Minutes in person at a dealer |
| Yearly price swings, 1988–2025 | Standard deviation 5.6% (Case-Shiller) | Standard deviation 14.0% (LBMA) |
| US federal tax on the gain | Up to $250,000 ($500,000 joint) excluded on a main home; rentals get depreciation and 1031 exchanges | Taxed as a collectible, at up to 28% on long-term gains |
Taxes. Bullion is a collectible for federal tax purposes (the definition in 26 U.S.C. 408(m) covers “any metal”), so long-term gains face a maximum 28% rate, per IRS Topic 409; nothing is due until you sell (details in the collectibles tax guide). A main home can shelter up to $250,000 of gain, or $500,000 on a joint return, if you owned and lived in it for two of the last five years (IRS Topic 701). Rental buildings are depreciated over 27.5 years (Publication 527), and since 2018 like-kind exchanges apply only to real property. Itemizers can deduct mortgage interest on the first $750,000 of debt (Publication 936), and the cap on state and local taxes, including property tax, rose from $10,000 to $40,000 for 2025, phasing down at high incomes (Schedule A instructions).
Liquidity. Selling a home means listing, waiting for a buyer and closing: the median existing home spent 33 days on the market in September 2026, according to the National Association of Realtors, before the weeks a mortgage closing takes. Gold can be sold one coin at a time. At our store on 47th Street, selling a standard, recognizable gold bar or coin in person typically takes 3 to 6 minutes from inspection to payment, by check the same day, with government photo ID (where to sell gold compares the options). You cannot sell one bedroom, although you can borrow against a house, and against gold, as the article on borrowing against gold explains.
2006 to 2026: does the start date decide the winner?
Yes, and by a wide margin. Three start dates in the same 20 years give three different answers.
- Buy in July 2006, at the housing peak. By August 2026, Case-Shiller prices had risen 82% while gold's monthly average was up 596%. Even a 5% net yield would leave the house at roughly 4.7 times its cost against 7.0 times for gold.
- Buy in September 2011, gold’s peak month. Home prices rose 140% by August 2026 and gold 149%: gold was ahead on price, but a net yield of about 0.3% a year would have closed the gap.
- Buy in January 2000. Gold rose about 16-fold and home prices 3.4-fold; only a net yield near 6% a year would have closed the gap.
The simple story, “gold beats houses” or the reverse, is mostly a choice of starting point. Investors who use the ratio as a timing signal often wait for extremes, such as 600-plus ounces in 2001 or about 100 in 1980, but those readings were only clear in hindsight.
Are gold and real estate correlated?
Barely, and slightly in opposite directions. From 1988 to 2025 the correlation between yearly changes in the Case-Shiller index and the gold price was −0.26. National home prices fell in six of those years (1991 and 2007 to 2011), and gold rose in five of them. Gold fell in eleven years, mostly in the 1990s and 2013 to 2015, while home prices rose in all but one of them. That weak, slightly negative link is why the two have tended to offset each other in a portfolio, though such relationships can change.
Is gold a better investment than property in the UK?
The UK picture is similar on price. The average UK home cost £273,000 in July 2026, up 1.4% on a year earlier, according to the UK House Price Index; at July’s average LBMA price in sterling, £3,045, that is about 90 ounces. Taxes, stamp duty and lending rules differ, so the US figures in this article don’t transfer directly.
Where gold and house prices stand in November 2026
The gold Ask was $4,099.96 on 7 November 2026; gold was 25% below its 29 January record and down about 7% for the year, and it has been swinging hard: its 12-month volatility was about 27.5%, against a 1990 to 2025 average of 15.8% (Bullion Trading LLC research, LBMA data). Home prices are flat to slightly higher: the Case-Shiller index rose 2.1% in the year to August, the median new house cost $393,300 in the third quarter, 11% below its late-2022 peak, and the median existing home sold for $417,500 in September (NAR). With the 30-year mortgage rate at 7.40% on 15 October (Freddie Mac), the next reading to watch is the Case-Shiller release, usually on the last Tuesday of the month (24 November).Gold, property or both: which suits which goal?
Neither is better in every case; they do different jobs. Property has tended to suit people who want income, can carry a mortgage and hold for many years, and who are willing to manage a building or pay someone to. Gold has tended to suit people who value liquidity, want to buy in small steps, or want something that doesn’t depend on one local housing market, a tenant or a lender.
Both readings have bear cases. For property: higher rates, falling rents, rising insurance and taxes, or a local downturn like 2006 to 2012. For gold: rising real interest rates, a stronger dollar or easing fears, any of which can mean years of flat or falling prices, as in 1980 to 2001 or 2011 to 2015. For many households a home is already the largest asset, so the practical question is often how much gold to hold alongside it; the guide to how much gold and silver to own compares the published frameworks.
How we did the research
We divided the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD quarterly median sales price of new houses sold (FRED series MSPUS, first quarter of 1963 to third quarter of 2026) by the average gold price in the same three months. Gold prices are daily LBMA Gold Price PM benchmarks averaged by month from April 1968 (BTLLC spot closes after 28 September 2026), and World Bank Pink Sheet monthly averages before that. The Case-Shiller comparison uses the national index, not seasonally adjusted, against monthly gold averages, deflated with the BLS CPI-U; October 2025 CPI was never published, so we interpolated it. Decade and period returns use yearly averages. The rent-yield scenarios add a constant net yield to Case-Shiller’s annual price growth: an illustration, not a measured return.
Limits: the median new-house price reflects which houses get built, not just price changes, which is why we also show Case-Shiller. Neither series includes rent, costs or taxes, and averages hide local markets. The table below has every year; use the button to download it.
| Year | House in ounces of gold | Median new US house | Gold, average per oz |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1963 | 514.4 | $18,050 | $35.09 |
| 1964 | 539.2 | $18,925 | $35.10 |
| 1965 | 573.0 | $20,125 | $35.12 |
| 1966 | 612.0 | $21,500 | $35.13 |
| 1967 | 650.9 | $22,750 | $34.95 |
| 1968 | 637.1 | $24,800 | $38.93 |
| 1969 | 623.1 | $25,600 | $41.09 |
| 1970 | 653.1 | $23,475 | $35.94 |
| 1971 | 618.2 | $25,225 | $40.81 |
| 1972 | 473.2 | $27,525 | $58.16 |
| 1973 | 335.0 | $32,600 | $97.32 |
| 1974 | 226.3 | $36,050 | $159.27 |
| 1975 | 243.9 | $39,275 | $161.02 |
| 1976 | 354.3 | $44,225 | $124.84 |
| 1977 | 331.0 | $48,900 | $147.72 |
| 1978 | 289.0 | $55,850 | $193.23 |
| 1979 | 204.6 | $62,750 | $306.69 |
| 1980 | 105.7 | $64,750 | $612.56 |
| 1981 | 150.0 | $68,950 | $459.71 |
| 1982 | 184.2 | $69,225 | $375.79 |
| 1983 | 177.7 | $75,375 | $424.19 |
| 1984 | 221.8 | $79,950 | $360.44 |
| 1985 | 265.6 | $84,275 | $317.28 |
| 1986 | 250.4 | $92,025 | $367.51 |
| 1987 | 234.5 | $104,700 | $446.47 |
| 1988 | 256.8 | $112,225 | $437.05 |
| 1989 | 315.7 | $120,425 | $381.43 |
| 1990 | 318.9 | $122,300 | $383.47 |
| 1991 | 331.3 | $119,975 | $362.18 |
| 1992 | 353.1 | $121,375 | $343.73 |
| 1993 | 351.6 | $126,500 | $359.77 |
| 1994 | 339.6 | $130,425 | $384.01 |
| 1995 | 347.4 | $133,475 | $384.16 |
| 1996 | 361.8 | $140,250 | $387.70 |
| 1997 | 437.9 | $145,000 | $331.10 |
| 1998 | 516.5 | $151,925 | $294.16 |
| 1999 | 574.4 | $160,125 | $278.77 |
| 2000 | 600.5 | $167,550 | $279.03 |
| 2001 | 638.8 | $173,100 | $270.99 |
| 2002 | 600.1 | $186,025 | $309.97 |
| 2003 | 528.5 | $192,125 | $363.51 |
| 2004 | 533.1 | $218,150 | $409.21 |
| 2005 | 531.7 | $236,550 | $444.88 |
| 2006 | 403.3 | $243,750 | $604.34 |
| 2007 | 351.6 | $244,950 | $696.66 |
| 2008 | 263.3 | $229,550 | $871.71 |
| 2009 | 221.6 | $215,650 | $972.98 |
| 2010 | 181.8 | $222,700 | $1,224.66 |
| 2011 | 143.4 | $224,900 | $1,568.58 |
| 2012 | 146.5 | $244,400 | $1,668.82 |
| 2013 | 188.7 | $266,225 | $1,411.03 |
| 2014 | 225.7 | $285,775 | $1,266.19 |
| 2015 | 253.6 | $294,150 | $1,160.11 |
| 2016 | 244.4 | $305,125 | $1,248.34 |
| 2017 | 256.5 | $322,425 | $1,257.13 |
| 2018 | 256.3 | $325,275 | $1,269.14 |
| 2019 | 230.0 | $320,250 | $1,392.17 |
| 2020 | 185.4 | $328,150 | $1,769.59 |
| 2021 | 212.8 | $383,000 | $1,799.58 |
| 2022 | 240.4 | $432,950 | $1,800.80 |
| 2023 | 219.5 | $426,525 | $1,942.74 |
| 2024 | 175.5 | $418,975 | $2,387.04 |
| 2025 | 120.9 | $415,400 | $3,434.78 |
| 2026 (Jan–Sep) | 89.0 | $405,100 | $4,553.82 |
Gold vs real estate: the bottom line
Measured in gold, US houses are near their cheapest since records begin in 1963, because gold has risen far faster than house prices since 2000. Over longer spans the race is closer, and counting rent can reverse it: a rented house has needed only a modest yield to beat gold since 1987. Property pays an income and rewards leverage in good years; gold is cheaper to hold and quicker to sell and has tended to rise when housing fell. The start date usually decides who “won”.
Frequently asked questions
What is the gold to real estate ratio?
It is the price of a house divided by the price of an ounce of gold. For the median new US house it was about 92 ounces in the third quarter of 2026, against a median of 303 ounces since 1963.
Can you buy a house with gold?
In practice, you sell the gold for dollars and buy with the dollars, because closings, lenders and title companies work in dollars. In the US, that sale can trigger tax on any gain at the collectibles rate.
Is gold or property the better inflation hedge?
Both beat US consumer prices from 1987 to 2026, gold by more, but gold lagged inflation from 1988 until late 2007, and real home prices fell for six years from late 2005.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, Median Sales Price of New Houses Sold for the United States (MSPUS), via FRED: quarterly prices, 1963 to 2026.
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami metro indices, via FRED: monthly home prices since 1987.
- Federal Housing Finance Agency, Purchase-Only House Price Index, via FRED: growth since 1991.
- LBMA, LBMA Gold Price: daily benchmark history, averaged by month; Good Delivery bar size.
- World Bank, Commodity Markets (Pink Sheet): monthly gold prices before April 1968.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U): inflation adjustment.
- Jordà, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick and Taylor, The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015, NBER: US housing price and rental returns, transaction costs.
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey (rate on 15 October 2026) and Budgeting for upfront homebuying costs (closing costs).
- National Association of Realtors, Existing-home sales, September 2026: median price and time on market.
- Tax Foundation, Property taxes by state and county: effective rates, 2024.
- IRS, Topic 409, Topic 701, Publication 527, Publication 936, Schedule A instructions and like-kind exchange tips; Cornell LII, 26 U.S.C. 408: tax rules.
- Federal Reserve History, Gold Reserve Act of 1934: the gold ownership ban and its end in 1974.
- HM Land Registry and ONS, UK House Price Index summary: July 2026: UK average price.
- State Street Global Advisors, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD): expense ratio.